How can horticulture boost tasmanias economy without ruining the climate? This is the question being asked and answered in the latest research by Dr Michael Leakey, a University of Canterbury ecologist.
"I don't think that's how it works - there's a lot of literature that says the effects are very large," Leakey said.
"Some of those studies have some significant methodological problems, but some seem to be a little bit on the conservative side of that range.
"They seem to show the effect is, well, not entirely negative, but negative by a range of amounts."
Dr Leakey says that the research backs up the theory proposed by a paper published in September, which suggested there are two distinct types of drought.
The first, known as the'sparse drought', is thought to take place in mid summer when tasmanias grow in relative isolation.
That creates a small but stable pool of water from which many species can grow.
The second type of drought, known as the 'critical drought', is when the drought is extended throughout the year, resulting in tasmanias becoming more isolated and thus less susceptible to drought events.
It's not necessarily bad news that we have drought across the winter season. But what happens if it happens too frequently? In that respect, it's a bit worrying Dr Michael Leakey
"This research does provide some evidence that it may be one of the more difficult situations to work with at this juncture," Leakey said.
"But with many species already experiencing drought in the winter, there isn't any evidence that it actually has a substantial negative impact on the overall population or on the economy as a whole.
"We would have expected the effects to be quite large. You could assume that it would probably be at least on a couple of the level where this is occurring."
In the long term, leakage is not a threat to agriculture but it is a problem.
Dr Leakey is particularly concerned about how tasmanias are impacted by changes in the climate, especially during the summer when they can lose up to 50 per cent of their yield every year due to an increasing average minimum level of temperature.
Droughts, flooding, storm surges, heat waves - all of the factors causing drought in Tasmania are occurring more frequently as Tasmania faces a more severe El Nino, which occurs when the Pacific Ocean oscillates too much on one side of the world.
The current drought is also a little bit unusual.
"We had in the past two years five straight years when we actually had the least rainfall in our history. So it is really unusual.
"Tasmania is reall
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Ngày 15 tháng 7 năm 2020
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